Models of a Total Criminal Justice System

Alfred Blumstein and Richard Larson
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Alfred Blumstein: Institute for Defense Analyses, Arlington, Virginia
Richard Larson: Institute for Defense Analyses, Arlington, Virginia

Operations Research, 1969, vol. 17, issue 2, 199-232

Abstract: The need to examine the total criminal justice system—police, prosecution, courts, and correction agencies—in an integrated way constitutes a central problem in improving law enforcement. Too, any such analysis must reflect the feedback into society of offenders released at various stages in the system. This paper formulates a model for the criminal justice system in one state; it depicts the flow of arrested persons through the system as a function of type of crime, and provides a basis for apportioning costs to system components and to types of crime. The model's feedback feature includes the probability of rearrest as a decreasing function of age and a crime-switch matrix reflecting the successive-crime distribution. The results from the model include a cost distribution by crime type, criminal-career costs, an examination of the courses of criminal careers, and estimates of the sensitivities of costs and offender flows within the system to changes in its controllable variables.

Date: 1969
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