Sprinter Mod III: A Model for the Analysis of New Frequently Purchased Consumer Products

Glen L. Urban
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Glen L. Urban: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts

Operations Research, 1970, vol. 18, issue 5, 805-854

Abstract: This paper presents a model-based information system designed to analyze test-market results, to assist decision-making for a new frequently purchased consumer product, and to serve as an adaptive control mechanism during national introduction. The model, called SPRINTER, is based on the behavioral process of the diffusion of innovation and can be used normatively in an interactive search mode to find the best marketing strategy for a new product. The input is obtained from test-market data analyzed by statistics and combined with subjective judgments. A Go, On, or No decision is made on the basis of the estimated profit and risk produced by the best marketing strategy. During national introduction the model serves as a “problem-finding” mechanism. It uses early national sales and micro-level behavioral data to diagnose problems in the introduction. It also can be used to search for solutions to these problems as they are recognized. Finally, an application of this model to a real product is reported, this application using an on-line computer program that allows convenient man-system communication.

Date: 1970
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