An Iterative Estimation and Validation Procedure for Specification of Semi-Markov Models with Application to Hospital Patient Flow

Elliott N. Weiss, Morris A. Cohen and John C. Hershey
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Elliott N. Weiss: Cornell University, Ithaca, New York
Morris A. Cohen: University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
John C. Hershey: University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Operations Research, 1982, vol. 30, issue 6, 1082-1104

Abstract: This article presents a methodology to identify and specify a continuous time semi-Markov model of population flow within a network of service facilities. An iterative procedure of state space definition, population disaggregation, and parameter estimation leads to the specification of a model which satisfies the underlying semi-Markov assumptions. We also present a test of the impact of occupancy upon realizations of population flows. The procedure is applied to data describing the movements of obstetric patients in a large university teaching hospital. We use the model to predict length-of-stay distributions. Finally, we compare these results with those that would have been obtained without the procedure, and show the modified model to be superior.

Keywords: 271 hospital patient flow model; 567 estimation and validation procedures; 799 semi-Markov model specification (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1982
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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