Sequential Decision Making under Uncertain Future Preferences

Chelsea C. White
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Chelsea C. White: University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia

Operations Research, 1984, vol. 32, issue 1, 148-168

Abstract: We present a model of sequential decision making under uncertain future preferences, assuming that the evolution of the trade-off weight vector is constrained by set inclusion. We consider different mechanisms for selecting the next trade-off weight vector: a mechanism working against the decision maker (DM) ( M ), a mechanism trying to aid the DM ( B ), and (briefly) a probabilistic mechanism ( P ). Piecewise linear, convex upper and lower bounds on the optimal value function are determined for mechanisms M and B . Conditions are given that guarantee that the optimal value function is piecewise linear and convex for all three mechanisms. Procedures for computing these bounds and determining associated strategies are presented. A hypothetical situation involving an individual seeking promotion is used to illustrate the model and the numerical techniques.

Keywords: 97 sequential decision analysis; 851 utility theory (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1984
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:inm:oropre:v:32:y:1984:i:1:p:148-168

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