Technical Note—Renormalization of Seasonals in Winters' Forecasting Systems: Is it Necessary?

Ed McKenzie
Additional contact information
Ed McKenzie: Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, and University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, Scotland

Operations Research, 1986, vol. 34, issue 1, 174-176

Abstract: Normalizing the initial estimates of the seasonal factors in Winters' seasonal forecasting systems is a universally recommended practice. Once forecasting begins, however, the seasonal factors lose their normalization. It is often recommended that these factors be renormalized either seasonally or continuously, i.e., with every observation. We show that this latter procedure is never necessary in the case of the additive model, since a simple change in the smoothing constants can achieve the same ends. We also give a simpler and more efficient method of obtaining seasonally renormalized forecasts for this model.

Keywords: 221; Winters'; season; forecasting; systems (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1986
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/opre.34.1.174 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:inm:oropre:v:34:y:1986:i:1:p:174-176

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Operations Research from INFORMS Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Asher ().