An Assessment of the Risk of Chronic Lung Injury Attributable to Long-Term Ozone Exposure

Robert L. Winkler, Thomas S. Wallsten, Ronald G. Whitfield, Harvey M. Richmond, Stanley R. Hayes and Arlene S. Rosenbaum
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Robert L. Winkler: Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
Thomas S. Wallsten: University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina
Ronald G. Whitfield: Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois
Harvey M. Richmond: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina
Stanley R. Hayes: Environ Corporation, Emeryville, California
Arlene S. Rosenbaum: Systems Applications, Inc., San Rafael, California

Operations Research, 1995, vol. 43, issue 1, 19-28

Abstract: This paper presents an application of a formal process for encoding experts’ probabilistic judgments. The objective is to characterize scientific judgment regarding the risk of chronic lung injury to children aged 8 through 16 and to adult outdoor workers due to long-term ozone exposure in areas with patterns of exposure similar to those found in Southern California and the Northeast. Our measure of injury is the incidence of mild or moderate lesions in the centriacinar region of the lung. Probabilities over population response rates were elicited from six health experts actively researching ozone-induced lung injury. We describe our approach, present some judgmental probability distributions over the population response rates for formation of lesions induced by exposure to ozone, summarize some qualitative results, and offer some concluding comments.

Keywords: decision analysis; risk: probabilistic risk assessment; environment: chronic health risks associated with ozone exposure; probability: elicitation of experts’ probabilistic judgments (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1995
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:inm:oropre:v:43:y:1995:i:1:p:19-28

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