Using Judgment in Resource Management: A Multiple Objective Analysis of a Fisheries Management Decision

Timothy L. McDaniels
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Timothy L. McDaniels: University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Operations Research, 1995, vol. 43, issue 3, 415-426

Abstract: This paper uses multiple objective decision analysis to conduct an ex post analysis of a specific fisheries management decision involving conflicting long-term objectives for mixed stocks. The paper illustrates the potential role of subjective judgment in fisheries and other resource management contexts and the relevance of decision analysis for in-season salmon management. The decision context is first defined in terms of objectives and alternatives, then subjective probability distributions are elicited from experts regarding uncertain biological parameters. A simulation is then used to estimate the consequences of alternative openings, given the biological uncertainties. A utility function is elicited from a fisheries manager and used to select among alternative commercial fishery openings. The results show that objectives other than those typically assumed in fisheries modeling, and subjective judgments by technical experts, can be important for in-season salmon management. The results also show that, in this application, the equivalent of nearly $8 million in potential benefits are available from delaying the opening of the commercial fishery by a single day.

Keywords: decision analysis; applications; judgmental approaches; natural resources; fisheries management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1995
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