Evaluating Improvements in Electric Utility Reliability at British Columbia Hydro

Ralph L. Keeney, Timothy L. McDaniels and Cary Swoveland
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Ralph L. Keeney: University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California
Timothy L. McDaniels: University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B.C., Canada
Cary Swoveland: Quantalytics Inc.

Operations Research, 1995, vol. 43, issue 6, 933-947

Abstract: This paper employs multiattribute value assessment and risk analysis to evaluate the benefits of four alternatives to improve electrical system reliability in British Columbia. A multiattribute value model is constructed as a cost-equivalent function, based on value judgments provided by a group of senior system planners and two senior vice presidents from BC Hydro. Using data drawn from the utility's service records and probabilities elicited from the utility's technical specialists, a risk analysis is developed to estimate the magnitude and duration of outages associated with the various alternatives. The value model and probabilities are combined to estimate the expected equivalent costs of outages over time, for the four alternatives. The influence of this analysis on BC Hydro's transmission system planning is also discussed.

Keywords: decision analysis; applications; how to improve electric reliability; facilities/equipment planning; constructing new electric transmission lines; utility/preference; evaluating reliability improvements (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1995
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