A Simulation Optimization Approach to Long-Term Care Capacity Planning

Yue Zhang (), Martin L. Puterman (), Matthew Nelson () and Derek Atkins ()
Additional contact information
Yue Zhang: College of Business and Innovation, University of Toledo, Toledo, Ohio 43606
Martin L. Puterman: Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia V6T 1Z2, Canada
Matthew Nelson: Centre for Research in Healthcare Engineering, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario M5S 3G8, Canada
Derek Atkins: Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia V6T 1Z2, Canada

Operations Research, 2012, vol. 60, issue 2, 249-261

Abstract: This paper describes a methodology for setting long-term care capacity levels over a multiyear planning horizon to achieve target wait time service levels. Our approach integrates demographic and survival analysis, discrete event simulation, and optimization. Based on this methodology, we developed a decision support system for use in practice. We illustrate this approach through two case studies: one for a regional health authority in British Columbia, Canada, and the other for a long-term care facility. We also compare our approach to the fixed ratio approach used in practice and the SIPP (stationary, independent, period by period) and MOL (modified offered load) approaches developed in the call center literature. Our results suggest that our approach is preferable. The fixed ratio approach lacks a rigorous foundation, and the SIPP and MOL approaches do not perform reliably mainly because of long service times. We conclude the paper with policy recommendations.

Keywords: long-term care; capacity planning; survival analysis; simulation; optimization; service level (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (16)

Downloads: (external link)
http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/opre.1110.1026 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:inm:oropre:v:60:y:2012:i:2:p:249-261

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Operations Research from INFORMS Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Asher ().