A Mathematical Model of Humanitarian Aid Agencies in Attritional Conflict Environments

Timothy A. McLennan-Smith (), Alexander C. Kalloniatis (), Zlatko Jovanoski (), Harvinder S. Sidhu (), Dale O. Roberts (), Simon Watt () and Isaac N. Towers ()
Additional contact information
Timothy A. McLennan-Smith: School of Science, University of New South Wales, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2610, Australia
Alexander C. Kalloniatis: Defence Science and Technology Group, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2600, Australia
Zlatko Jovanoski: School of Science, University of New South Wales, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2610, Australia
Harvinder S. Sidhu: School of Science, University of New South Wales, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2610, Australia
Dale O. Roberts: Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601, Australia
Simon Watt: School of Science, University of New South Wales, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2610, Australia
Isaac N. Towers: School of Science, University of New South Wales, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2610, Australia

Operations Research, 2021, vol. 69, issue 6, 1696-1714

Abstract: Traditional combat models, such as Lanchester’s equations, are typically limited to two competing populations and exhibit solutions characterized by exponential decay—and growth if logistics are included. We enrich such models to account for modern and future complexities, particularly around the role of interagency engagement in operations as often displayed in counterinsurgency operations. To address this, we explore incorporation of nontrophic effects from ecological modeling. This provides a global representation of asymmetrical combat between two forces in the modern setting in which noncombatant populations are present. As an example, we set the noncombatant population in our model to be a neutral agency supporting the native population to the extent that they are noncombatants. Correspondingly, the opposing intervention force is under obligations to enable an environment in which the neutral agency may undertake its work. In contrast to the typical behavior seen in the classic Lanchester system, our model gives rise to limit cycles and bifurcations that we interpret through a warfighting application. Finally, through a case study, we highlight the importance of the agility of a force in achieving victory when noncombatant populations are present.

Keywords: counterinsurgency; Lanchester theory; combat models and simulation; operating environment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/opre.2021.2130 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:inm:oropre:v:69:y:2021:i:6:p:1696-1714

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Operations Research from INFORMS Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Asher ().