A Failure Model for Equipments Undergoing Complex Operation

David S. Stoller
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David S. Stoller: The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, California

Operations Research, 1958, vol. 6, issue 5, 723-728

Abstract: A simple failure model for equipment undergoing several cycles of operation is given by the expression, 1 - exp(-(Lambda)(sum) ı =1 ı = k (tau) i ), where (Lambda) is the failure coefficient, (tau) i is the length of the ı th cycle of operation, and k is the number of cycles. A consequence of this model is that the probability of failure for a given total operating time is independent of the number of cycles of operation. It is shown that, under certain assumptions, a failure model that takes account of the number of cycles of operation, as well as the operating time, is given by the expression, 1 - exp((Lambda) 0 (sum) ı =1 ı = k (tau) ı + (Lambda) 1 k ). Interpretations of the constants, (Lambda) 0 and (Lambda) 1 , are given. Also discussed is a method for testing the plausibility of the model against failure data.

Date: 1958
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