Optimal Dynamic Control of an Epidemic

Thomas Kruse () and Philipp Strack ()
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Thomas Kruse: School of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, University of Wuppertal, 42119 Wuppertal, Germany
Philipp Strack: Department of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut 06510

Operations Research, 2024, vol. 72, issue 3, 1031-1048

Abstract: We analyze how to optimally engage in social distancing in order to minimize the spread of an infectious disease. We identify conditions under which any optimal policy is single peaked (i.e., first engages in increasingly more social distancing and subsequently decreases its intensity). We show that an optimal policy might substantially delay measures that decrease the transmission rate to create herd immunity and that engaging in social distancing suboptimally early can increase the number of fatalities. Finally, we find that optimal social distancing can be an effective measure to reduce the death rate of a disease.

Keywords: Policy Modeling and Public Sector OR; social distancing; SIR model; time-optimal control of an epidemic (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:inm:oropre:v:72:y:2024:i:3:p:1031-1048

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