The Distribution and Effects of Fallout in Large Nuclear-Weapon Campaigns

Hugh Everett and George E. Pugh
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Hugh Everett: Weapon Systems Evaluation Division, Institute for Defense Analyses, Washington, D.C.
George E. Pugh: Weapon Systems Evaluation Division, Institute for Defense Analyses, Washington, D.C.

Operations Research, 1959, vol. 7, issue 2, 226-248

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to provide a simple way of evaluating the consequences of radioactive fallout from a large nuclear-weapon campaign without resorting to detailed map studies. Simple analytic formulas based on numerical data in Rand Memorandum RM-1969 are presented that enable one to make rapid statistical estimates of the distribution of fallout and its effects on a population, as well as the consequences of changing the total delivered yield or the targeting doctrine. The method was checked against a detailed map study, using the same parameters, and was found to be in excellent agreement with its results. A method of optimally distributing weapons among large areas in order to maximize radiation casualties is deduced on the basis of the formulas, and curves are exhibited expressing the casualties produced as a function of total yield delivered. The achievement of optimized attacks does not require a delivery accuracy with probable error less than about a hundred miles. In addition, the formulas are applied to a number of other targeting doctrines, and the resulting curves of casualties versus total delivered yield are presented.

Date: 1959
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