Alternative Approaches for Real-Time Estimation and Prediction of Time-Dependent Origin–Destination Flows

K. Ashok and M. E. Ben-Akiva
Additional contact information
K. Ashok: Marketing and Planning Systems, 1100 Winter Street, Waltham, Massachusetts 02451
M. E. Ben-Akiva: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Room 1-181, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139

Transportation Science, 2000, vol. 34, issue 1, 21-36

Abstract: This paper examines two different approaches for real-time estimation/prediction of time-dependent Origin–Destination (O–D) flows. Both approaches lend themselves to formulation as state-space models. The first approach is an extension of previous work by the authors. The key idea in this approach is to define the state-vector in terms of deviations in O–D flows instead of the O–D flows themselves. We demonstrate that approximations to this model make the real-time estimation process computationally more tractable with little deterioration in quality of estimates. In the second approach, the state vector is defined in terms of deviations of departure rates from each origin and the shares headed to each destination. This approach attempts to capture the differential variation of departure rates and shares over time. Performance of the proposed models is evaluated using actual traffic data from different sources. Preliminary results indicate that the filtering procedure is robust and that, compared to the original model, a formulation based on departure rates and shares yields better predictions with some loss of accuracy in filtered estimates.

Date: 2000
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (28)

Downloads: (external link)
http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/trsc.34.1.21.12282 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:inm:ortrsc:v:34:y:2000:i:1:p:21-36

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Transportation Science from INFORMS Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Asher ().