EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Cross-National Differences in Aviation Safety Records

Arnold Barnett ()
Additional contact information
Arnold Barnett: MIT Sloan School of Management, Operations Research Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139

Transportation Science, 2010, vol. 44, issue 3, 322-332

Abstract: Data about the mortality risk of scheduled passenger air travel over 2000--2007 around the world is examined in this paper. Worldwide, the average passenger death risk per scheduled flight over 2000--2007 was about one in 3.0 million. However, much as the center of mass of a doughnut is the center of the hole---where there is no mass---the worldwide average represents the actual risk level in few if any countries. The data support a three-population risk model across nations, in which the differences in death risk are not statistically significant within groups but are highly significant across groups. The safest nations are the traditional first-world countries (e.g., Canada, Japan), with a death risk per flight of about 1 in 14 million. Next safest are those developing-world nations that have either have recently attained first-world status (e.g., Singapore, South Korea) or are classified by experts as newly industrialized (e.g., Brazil, China) Their aggregrate death risk per flight was about 1 in 2 million. The least safe nations statistically are remaining developing-world countries, with a death risk per flight of about 1 in 800,000. In terms of relative risk, divergences within the developing world are modest compared to the overall difference between the first and developing worlds. The observed risk pattern might reflect a confluence of economic and cultural factors.

Keywords: transportation; air; system safety; passenger mortality risk (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/trsc.1090.0313 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:inm:ortrsc:v:44:y:2010:i:3:p:322-332

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Transportation Science from INFORMS Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Matthew Walls ().

 
Page updated 2019-05-29
Handle: RePEc:inm:ortrsc:v:44:y:2010:i:3:p:322-332