Data-Enabled Stochastic Modeling for Evaluating Schedule Robustness of Railway Networks
Harshad Khadilkar ()
Additional contact information
Harshad Khadilkar: TATA Consultancy Services, Andheri East, 400093 Mumbai, India
Transportation Science, 2017, vol. 51, issue 4, 1161-1176
Abstract:
This paper evaluates the robustness of a railway network with respect to operational delays. It assumes that trains in the network operate on fixed routes and with reference to a timetable. A stochastic delay propagation model is proposed for identifying primary (externally imposed) delays and for computing the resultant secondary (knock-on) delays. Delay probability distributions are computed for each train at each station on its journey, using timetable and infrastructure data for identifying potential station resource conflicts with other trains. The delay predictions are used to evaluate schedule robustness using two newly proposed metrics. Individual robustness measures the ability of trains to limit the adverse effects of their own primary delays. On the other hand, collective robustness measures the ability of the network as a whole, to limit the knock-on effects of primary delays imposed on a small fraction of trains. The two metrics provide stochastic guarantees on the punctuality of trains when the published schedule is put in operation. The applicability of the proposed methodology is validated using empirical data from a portion of the Indian Railways network, containing more than 38,000 train arrival/departure records. While a railway network is used as a case study, the same ideas can be applied to any scheduled transportation network.
Keywords: rail transportation network; schedule robustness; stochastic delay propagation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)
Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1287/trsc.2016.0703 (application/pdf)
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:inm:ortrsc:v:51:y:2017:i:4:p:1161-1176
Access Statistics for this article
More articles in Transportation Science from INFORMS Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Asher ().