Secession of the Center: A Virtual Probe of the Prospects for Punjabi Secessionism in Pakistan and the Secession of Punjabistan

Ian Lustick ()
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Ian Lustick: http://www.polisci.upenn.edu/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=25&Itemid=26

Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 2011, vol. 14, issue 1, 7

Abstract: In world politics the most important events are often rare events. Secession is a rare and important event. Secession of the center; when the dominant region of a country abandons its peripheries, is even rarer. But as the transformation of the Soviet Union into Russia and a collection of independent states demonstrates, it is an important kind of development. In this paper we illustrate the ambitious use of an agent-based virtualization model of Pakistan. By producing a large number of futures of the country, modeled according to best available data and theory, secession of the center--the emergence of Punjabistan--is shown to be rare although possible. Analysis of the trajectories leading toward that outcome suggests how it could come about; or be prevented.

Keywords: Secession; Virtualization; Pakistan; Simulation; Punjab; Rare Events (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-01-31
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:jas:jasssj:2010-33-2

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