Do Fans Want Close Contests? A Test of the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis in the National Basketball Association

Daniel Rascher () and John Solmes ()
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John Solmes: KPMG LLP

International Journal of Sport Finance, 2007, vol. 2, issue 3, 130-141

Abstract: The National Basketball Association claims to sell entertainment. Part of that entertainment is close, competitive contests with uncertain outcomes. However, hometown fans want the home team to win. Hence, the optimal probability that the home team wins a game, from the perspective of maximizing demand, lays somewhere between 0.5 and 1.0. Using data from individual games for the 2001-02 season, this optimal probability was estimated to be approximately 0.66. Fans want their home team to have about twice the chance to win a game as the visiting team.

Keywords: uncertainty of outcome; basketball; linear regression; home court advantage; demand; attendance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
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Working Paper: Do Fans Want Close Contests? A Test of the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis in the National Basketball Association (2007)
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International Journal of Sport Finance is currently edited by Arne Feddersen, Babatunde Buraimo, Joachim Prinz and Jane Ruseski

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