Do Fans Want Close Contests? A Test of the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis in the National Basketball Association

Daniel Rascher (rascher@usfca.edu) and Solmes John Paul

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The National Basketball Association claims to sell entertainment. Part of that entertainment is close, competitive contests with uncertain outcomes. However, hometown fans want the home team to win. Hence, the optimal probability that the home team wins a game, from the perspective of maximizing demand, lays somewhere between 0.5 and 1.0. Using data from individual games for the 2001-02 season, this optimal probability was estimated to be approximately 0.66. Fans want their home team to have about twice the chance to win a game as the visiting team.

Keywords: uncertainty of outcome; basketball; linear regression; home court advantage; demand; attendance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D12 L83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (28)

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Journal Article: Do Fans Want Close Contests? A Test of the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis in the National Basketball Association (2007)
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