EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Determining the asymmetric effects of oil price changes on macroeconomic variables: a case study of Turkey

Yeliz Yalcin, Cengiz Arikan () and Furkan Emirmahmutoglu ()

Empirica, 2015, vol. 42, issue 4, 737-746

Abstract: This paper aims to investigate the effects of unanticipated oil price changes on the Turkish economy using quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) and monthly consumer price index (CPI) and real exchange rate (RER) for the period 2002–2013 . While the bulk of previous studies have employed the standard methodology without true data generating process knowledge, in this study asymmetric Vector Autoregressive methodology proposed by Kilian and Vigfusson (Quant Econ 2(3): 419–453, 2011 ) is used to analyze the asymmetric impact of oil prices on macroeconomic aggregates. This method allows the researcher to investigate the asymmetric effects of innovations in oil prices on variables without knowing data generating process is linear or not. Empirical findings that, the oil prices changes have asymmetric effects on CPI and RER at one standard deviation shocks in different periods unlike GDP. These asymmetric effects are also statistically significant at 10 % significance level. Specifically, when oil price increases, CPI and RER increases but GDP decreases in the long term. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

Keywords: Oil price; Turkish economy; Asymmetric effect; VAR; C01; C32; C34; C82 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10663-014-9274-y (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:kap:empiri:v:42:y:2015:i:4:p:737-746

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... ration/journal/10663

Access Statistics for this article

Empirica is currently edited by Fritz Breuss and Fritz Breuss

More articles in Empirica from Springer, Austrian Institute for Economic Research, Austrian Economic Association Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla ().

 
Page updated 2019-11-11
Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:42:y:2015:i:4:p:737-746