Physical and Economic Consequences of Sea-Level Rise: A Coupled GIS and CGE Analysis Under Uncertainties

Santosh R. Joshi (), Marc Vielle, Frédéric Babonneau, Neil R. Edwards and Philip B. Holden
Additional contact information
Santosh R. Joshi: Centre for Environmental and Resource Economics
Frédéric Babonneau: École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), EPFL ENAC INTER REME
Neil R. Edwards: Open University
Philip B. Holden: Open University

Environmental & Resource Economics, 2016, vol. 65, issue 4, No 7, 813-839

Abstract: Abstract This paper develops a modelling framework that links GEMINI-E3, a multi-regional, multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model with a cost-benefit analysis approach at local level using geographical information system tools to assess the physical and economic consequences of sea-level rise (SLR) in the twenty first century. A set of future scenarios is developed spanning the uncertainties related to global warming, the parameters of semi-empirical SLR estimates, and coastal developments (cropland, urban areas and population). The importance of incorporating uncertainties regarding coastal development is highlighted. The simulation results suggest that the potential development of future coastal areas is a greater source of uncertainty than the parameters of SLR itself in terms of the economic consequences of SLR. At global level, the economic impact of SLR could be significant when loss of productive land along with loss of capital and forced displacement of populations are considered. Furthermore, highly urbanised and densely populated coastal areas of South East Asia, Australia and New Zealand are likely to suffer significantly if no protective measures are taken. Hence, it is suggested that coastal areas needs to be protected to ameliorate the overall welfare cost across various regions.

Keywords: Climate change; Sea-level rise; GIS; Computable general equilibrium model; Coastal impacts; Uncertainty; Adaptation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C68 D58 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10640-015-9927-8

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