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External Influences on Business Cycle Synchronization in the Euro Area

Jason Jones (), Nora Collins () and Lauren Sribnick ()

International Advances in Economic Research, 2012, vol. 18, issue 1, 28-39

Abstract: Most studies of business cycle synchronization in the EMU identify a core set of counties with high synchronization and a periphery set of countries with low synchronization. Using a structural VAR with model uncertainty, we identify spillover effects from shocks that originate in the United States, the EMU, and the rest of the world to test whether external influences can explain the existence of the core and periphery. Most countries typically found in the core respond to external spillovers in similar ways, leading to more synchronized business cycles. The response to external influences in the countries traditionally found in the periphery, on the other hand, help explain their exclusion from the core. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2012

Keywords: Business cycle synchronization; EMU; Spillovers (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11294-011-9339-7

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