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A general equilibrium assessment of COVID-19's labor productivity impacts on china's regional economies

Xi He, Edward Balistreri, Gyu Hyun Kim () and Wendong Zhang ()
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Xi He: Virginia Tech
Gyu Hyun Kim: Korea Energy Economics Institute
Wendong Zhang: Iowa State University

Journal of Productivity Analysis, 2022, vol. 58, issue 2, No 2, 129-150

Abstract: Abstract This study introduces a database for analyzing COVID-19’s impacts on China’s regional economies. This database contains various sectoral and regional economic outcomes at the weekly and monthly level. In the context of a general equilibrium trade model, we first formulate a mathematical representation of the Chinese regional economy and calibrate the model with China’s multi-regional input-output table. We then utilize the monthly provincial and sectoral value-added and national trade series to estimate COVID-19’s province-by-month labor-productivity impacts from February 2020 to September 2020. As a year-on-year comparison, relative to February 2019 levels, we find an average 39.5% decrease in labor productivity (equivalent to around 305 million jobs) and an average 25.9% decrease in welfare. Labor productivity and welfare quickly returned to the recent high-growth trends for China in the latter half of 2020. By September 2020, relative to September 2019, average labor productivity increased by 12.2% (equivalent to around 94 million jobs) and average welfare increased by 8.2%.

Keywords: J01; E20; F10; R13; COVID-19; China’s regional economies; Computable general equilibrium (CGE); Labor productivity; Welfare analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1007/s11123-022-00642-3

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