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A General Equilibrium Assessment of COVID-19's Labor Productivity Impacts on China's Regional Economies

Xi He (), Edward Balistreri (), Gyu Kim, Tao Xiong and Wendong Zhang ()

Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications from Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University

Abstract: This study introduces a database that can be used to analyze COVID-19's impacts on China's regional economies. This database contains various sectoral and regional economic outcomes. In the context of a general equilibrium trade model, we utilize the provincial and sectoral value-added and national trade series to estimate COVID-19's province-by-month labor-productivity impacts. Compared to February 2019 levels, we find an average 37.9% decrease in labor productivity (equivalent to around 293 million jobs) and an average 20.8% decrease in welfare across provinces in February 2020. Both labor productivity and welfare have recovered quickly since April 2020. As of September 2020, average provincial labor productivity increased by 29.8% (equivalent to around 230 million jobs) and average welfare increased by 14.7% relative to their September 2019 levels.

Date: 2021-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cna
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