What reviews foretell about opening weekend box office revenue: the harbinger of failure effect in the movie industry

Pantelis Loupos (), Yvette Peng (), Sute Li () and Hao Hao ()
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Pantelis Loupos: University of California Davis
Yvette Peng: University of California Davis
Sute Li: University of California Davis
Hao Hao: University of California Davis

Marketing Letters, 2023, vol. 34, issue 3, No 12, 513-534

Abstract: Abstract We empirically investigate the harbinger of failure phenomenon in the motion picture industry by analyzing the pre-release reviews written on movies by film critics. We find that harbingers of failure do exist. Their positive (negative) pre-release movie reviews provide a strong predictive signal that the movie will turn out to be a flop (success). This signal persists even for the top critic category, which usually consists of professional critics, indicating that having expertise in a professional domain does not necessarily lead to correct predictions. Our findings challenge the current belief that positive reviews always help enhance box office revenue and shed new light on the influencer-predictor hypothesis. We further analyze the writing style of harbingers and provide new insights into their personality traits and cognitive biases.

Keywords: Movies; Reviews; Harbingers of failure; Text analytics; Preference heterogeneity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s11002-023-09665-8

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