Forecasting Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Derrick Reagle and Dominick Salvatore

Open Economies Review, 2000, vol. 11, issue 3, 247-259

Abstract: This article identifies six fundamental indicators that might predict a financial crisis similar to the one that affected the emerging markets of Southeast Asia. Our empirical analysis shows that the 1997 Asian crisis could have been predicted. Probit estimation reveals that a small number of common indicators can forecast a financial crisis well. The estimation gives estimates that are robust to either cross-section or panel data. We suggest an aggregate indicator that combines all the individual indicators and calculates the optimal thresholds for the indicators. This aggregate indicator has similar predictive properties and reduces the calculations to determine the probability of crisis. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2000

Keywords: financial crisis; emerging markets; warning indicators (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2000
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DOI: 10.1023/A:1008374807370

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