Robustness of Forecasting Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies with Data Revisions—A Note

Derrick Reagle and Dominick Salvatore

Open Economies Review, 2005, vol. 16, issue 2, 209-216

Abstract: Data revisions routinely introduced by the World Bank can lead to significant revisions in empirical results. We show this by re-estimating our aggregate indicator for predicting the 1997 Asian crisis utilizing the 1999 and 2004 updates of the 1996 World Bank data and comparing these results to those we obtained (this Journal, 2000) for predicting the same event using the original, unrevised, 1996 World Bank data. Since most data-gathering organizations routinely revise their data, this may represent a much greater problem for policy makers than might be recognized. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005

Keywords: data revisions; financial crisis; emerging markets; warning indicators (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005
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DOI: 10.1007/s11079-005-5876-0

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