Core Import Price Inflation in the United States

Janet Koech and Mark Wynne

Open Economies Review, 2013, vol. 24, issue 4, 717-730

Abstract: The cross-section distribution of U.S. import prices exhibits some of the fat-tailed characteristics that are well documented for the cross-section distribution of U.S. consumer prices. This suggests that limited-influence estimators of core import price inflation might outperform headline or traditional measures of core import price inflation. We examine whether limited influence estimators of core import price inflation help forecast overall import price inflation. They do not. However, limited influence estimators of core import price inflation do seem to have some predictive power for headline consumer price inflation in the medium term. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013

Keywords: Inflation forecasting; Trimmed mean inflation; Limited influence estimators; Core import prices; Core inflation; E31; E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Working Paper: Core import price inflation in the United States (2012)
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DOI: 10.1007/s11079-012-9264-2

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