Can We Prevent Boom-Bust Cycles During Euro Area Accession?

Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, Pascal Jacquinot and Marcin Kolasa

Open Economies Review, 2014, vol. 25, issue 1, 35-69

Abstract: Euro-area accession caused boom-bust cycles in several catching-up economies. Declining interest rates and easier financing conditions fuelled spending and borrowing from abroad. Over time inflation deteriorated external competitiveness, turning the boom into a bust. We ask whether such a scenario can be avoided using macroeconomic tools that are available in the period of joining a monetary union: central parity revaluation, fiscal tightening or increased taxation. We find that exchange rate revaluation is the most attractive option. It simultaneously trims the expansion of output and domestic demand, reduces the cost pressure and ranks first in terms of welfare. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Keywords: Boom-bust cycles; Euro area accession; Dynamic general equilibrium models; E52; E58; E63 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Working Paper: Can we prevent boom-bust cycles during euro area accession? (2011)
Working Paper: Can we prevent boom-bust cycles during euro area accession? (2010)
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DOI: 10.1007/s11079-013-9299-z

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