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Pitfalls in counterfactual analyses of policy rules

Robert Rasche

Open Economies Review, 1995, vol. 6, issue 3, 199-202

Abstract: This analysis examines the validity of utilizing a subset of reduced form equations, such as from a VAR model, for the construction of counterfactual policy analyses. It is shown that the omission of one of the estimated reduced form (VAR) equations and the substitution of a counterfactual policy rule to complete the model severely limits the admissible structure of the economic model that could have generated the historical data. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1995

Keywords: policy analysis; reduced forms; VAR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1995
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DOI: 10.1007/BF01000080

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