Does Cutting Child Benefits Reduce Fertility in Larger Families? Evidence from the UK’s Two-Child Limit

Mary Reader, Jonathan Portes () and Ruth Patrick
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Mary Reader: Stanford University
Jonathan Portes: King’s College London
Ruth Patrick: University of York

Population Research and Policy Review, 2025, vol. 44, issue 2, No 4, 26 pages

Abstract: Abstract We study the fertility effects of restricting child-related social assistance to the first two children in the family. As of 2017, all third and subsequent children born on or after 6 April 2017 in the UK were made ineligible for approximately 3000 GBP of means-tested child benefits per year. Using a triple difference and regression discontinuity design, we leverage administrative births microdata to identify the impact of the two-child limit on higher-order births. We find little to no decline in higher-order fertility among low-income families, with our estimates indicating at most small elasticities relative to the literature.

Keywords: Fertility; Family size; Social assistance; Welfare reform; J13; J18; H31; H53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11113-025-09935-5

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