Does cutting child benefits reduce fertility in larger families? Evidence from the UK’s two-child limit

Mary Reader, Jonathan Portes and Ruth Patrick

LSE Research Online Documents on Economics from London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library

Abstract: We study the fertility effects of restricting child-related social assistance to the first two children in the family. As of 2017, all third and subsequent children born on or after 6 April 2017 in the UK were made ineligible for approximately 3000 GBP of means-tested child benefits per year. Using a triple difference and regression discontinuity design, we leverage administrative births microdata to identify the impact of the two-child limit on higher-order births. We find little to no decline in higher-order fertility among low-income families, with our estimates indicating at most small elasticities relative to the literature.

Keywords: fertility; family size; social assistance; welfare reform; J18; Family size; Fertility; H31; H53; J13; Social assistance; Welfare reform (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H31 H53 J13 J18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 26 pages
Date: 2025-04-30
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Published in Population Research and Policy Review, 30, April, 2025, 44(2). ISSN: 0167-5923

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ehl:lserod:127503

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