Determinants of Currency Crises in Turkey

Gokhan Karabulut, Mehmet Bilgin and Ayse Celikel Danisoglu

Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2010, vol. 46, issue 0, 51-58

Abstract: Currency crises have become a serious threat for developing countries, especially since the financial deregulation process and the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. In the past two decades, Turkey has experienced two major currency crises. This study aims to predict the determinants of currency crises in Turkey by using an ordered probit model. According to the results, short-term debt/GDP, real exchange rate, deposit interest rates, foreign exchange reserves/imports, and credit/deposit variables are all significant in explaining currency crises in Turkey.

Keywords: crises in Turkey; currency crises; ordered probit models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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