Demographic Dividends in the ‘South’, Ageing ‘North’, and ‘South-South’ Trade Diversification

Patrick Georges and Aylin Seckin

Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2016, vol. 52, issue 10, 2397-2413

Abstract: The absence of clear convergence in incomes per capita and welfare between the North and the South, even in the face of spectacular growth rates in GDP in the emerging South, might be due to a terms of trade deterioration resulting from an expansion of production in the South which depresses the product’s price on world markets. This may originate from a “technical catch up” and also from a “demographic dividend” in the South relative to an ageing North. This article illustrates that some South-South trade diversification might mitigate the terms of trade deterioration and increase welfare gains in the South. We use a multicountry overlapping-generation general equilibrium model to simulate the magnitude of the terms of trade effect due to a demographic dividend in Turkey, and show that some trade diversification away from EU toward the South is a welfare improving policy for Turkey.

Date: 2016
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1540496X.2015.1073989 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:52:y:2016:i:10:p:2397-2413

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/MREE20

DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2015.1073989

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Emerging Markets Finance and Trade from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().