 The Impact of Economic Shocks in the Rest of the World on South Africa: Evidence from a Global VARAnnari De Waal and Renee van Eyden () Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2016, vol. 52, issue 3, 557-573 Abstract: The substantial change in South Africa’s trade patterns over the past two decades has affected the impact of economic shocks in major world economies on South Africa. To investigate the effect, we use a global vector autoregression (GVAR) model with time-varying trade weights to account for changing international trade linkages. We show that the long-term impact of a shock to Chinese GDP on South African GDP is much stronger in 2009 than in 1995, due to the substantial increase in South Africa’s trade with China since the mid-1990s. At the same time, the importance of the U.S. economy to South Africa diminished considerably. The results indicate one of the possible reasons why the recent global crisis did not affect South Africa as much as it affected developed economies. It also stresses the increased risk, to the South African and other economies, should China experience slower GDP growth. Date: 2016 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:52:y:2016:i:3:p:557-573 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2015.1103141 Access Statistics for this article More articles in Emerging Markets Finance and Trade from Taylor & Francis Journals |
Is your work missing from RePEc? Here is how to contribute.
Questions or problems? Check the EconPapers FAQ or send mail to .
EconPapers is hosted by the
School of Business at Örebro University.