Predictability of Term Spread for Economic Activity with Liquidity Premium Theory

Sunju Hwang () and Hahn Lee ()

Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2016, vol. 52, issue 7, 1528-1541

Abstract: In this article, we explore the predictive content of the term spread based on the liquidity premium theory. We decompose the contribution of the spread into the effect of expected future changes in short rates and the effect of the term premium. We also examine whether the predictive power of the term spread for real economic activity can be enhanced by such a decomposition. The basic finding is that both the expectations effect and the term premium effect are relevant for predicting economic fluctuations. In particular, we find that the decomposition might lead to a better prediction for the business-cycle turning points than the usual term spread.

Date: 2016
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1540496X.2016.1158536 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:52:y:2016:i:7:p:1528-1541

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/MREE20

DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2016.1158536

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Emerging Markets Finance and Trade from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().