Implicit Inflation and Risk Premiums in the Brazilian Fixed Income Market

Lucas Argentieri Mariani and Márcio Laurini

Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2017, vol. 53, issue 8, 1836-1853

Abstract: The breakeven inflation, the differential between nominal and real yields of bonds, is often used as a predictor of future inflation. The model presented here decomposes this interest rate differential into a risk premium and implicit inflation using a parametric formulation based on no-arbitrage conditions using nominal and indexed yield curves in Brazil, via an affine model of the Nelson–Siegel family. The measures of implicit inflation obtained from the model are shown to be unbiased estimators of future inflation for short horizons and carry some information for long horizons, and the model forecasts are superior to market surveys.

Date: 2017
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1540496X.2016.1193730 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:53:y:2017:i:8:p:1836-1853

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/MREE20

DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2016.1193730

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Emerging Markets Finance and Trade from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().