Forecasting the Term Structure of South African Government Bond Yields

Hui-Chu Shu, Jung-Hsien Chang and Ting-Ya Lo

Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2018, vol. 54, issue 1, 41-53

Abstract: This article uses the parsimonious dynamic Nelson–Siegel model to fit the yields of South African government bonds. We find that the dynamic Nelson–Siegel model has good fitting abilities for all maturities. We further forecast the term structure by seven different dynamic Nelson–Siegel models with time series models. We find that the DNS–VAR–GARCH model is useful for forecasting the short-term rates, the DNS–VAR best predicts the medium-term rates, and the DNS–RW best predicts the long-term rates. In addition, the dynamic Nelson–Siegel models provide better forecasts of yield data than a random walk model, especially for the 12-month forecasting horizons.

Date: 2018
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1540496X.2016.1225572 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:54:y:2018:i:1:p:41-53

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/MREE20

DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2016.1225572

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Emerging Markets Finance and Trade from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().