Does the Connectivity of the Belt and Road Initiative Contribute to the Economic Growth of the Belt and Road Countries?

Yaowen Chen, Zuojun Fan, Jie Zhang and Min Mo

Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2019, vol. 55, issue 14, 3227-3240

Abstract: Since the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been implemented for five years, it is time to ask whether the BRI contributes to Belt and Road (BR) countries’ economic growth, and how are the five elements of connectivity implemented between China and its partner countries since the BRI was proposed. This study focuses on the development of the five elements of connectivity between China and the BR countries from 2008 to 2017 using a comprehensive connectivity index extracted from principle component analysis, and then investigating if the connectivity has contributed to the economic growth of the BR countries with quantitative analysis of the fixed effect econometrical model. It is found that Russia, South Korea, and Singapore presented the top three levels of connectivity with China with regard to the overall connectivity index, varying from 1.4 to 2.4. Madagascar and Panama have the lowest level of connectivity with China, with values of −0.8 to −1.1. The result of the fixed effect model shows that the connectivity of the BR countries with China contributes to their economic growth. This provides quantitative evidence that the connectivity between BR countries and China has a significant influence on the economic growth of those countries.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2019.1643315

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