The Dynamic Industry Return Predictability: Evidence from Chinese Stock Markets

Wenlong Zhang, Yanying Zhang, Gaiyan Zhang, Ke Han and Lirong Chen

Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2020, vol. 56, issue 9, 2007-2026

Abstract: This paper examines the dynamics, direction, and determinants of industry return predictability in Chinese stock markets during the period 1993–2015. Using the dynamic approach, we find that industry portfolio predictability is time varying and has wide variations across industries. Lagged returns in four industries (banking, real estate, leasing, and information technology) are positively associated with aggregate market returns, while lagged returns for traditional industries are largely inversely associated with market returns. Our findings are consistent with gradual information diffusion across economically-linked industries. The likelihood of industry predictability increases by 4.5–8% in a bull market over that in the bear market. Our results advise investors to distinguish industries and stock market conditions to better time the market.

Date: 2020
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1540496X.2019.1624952 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:56:y:2020:i:9:p:2007-2026

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/MREE20

DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2019.1624952

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Emerging Markets Finance and Trade from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().