Aging Population and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: A Quantile Regression Approach

Thach Ngoc Pham and Duc Hong Vo

Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2021, vol. 57, issue 1, 108-122

Abstract: The economic effects and consequences of an aging population on economic growth in terms of productivity and demand have attracted great attention from policy makers, particular in emerging countries. This study examines the effect of an aging population on economic growth in 84 developing countries in the period 1971–2015, using panel fixed effects and quantile regression. The results confirm a negative effect on economic growth in the long run from having a high share of young people (14 years old and younger). However, in the long run, a positive relationship exists between the share of those 65 and older and economic performance. The quantile regression results confirm the importance of an aging population on economic growth at most percentiles. However, from lower to higher percentiles, the estimated magnitudes differ.

Date: 2021
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Working Paper: Ageing Population and Economic Growth in Developing Countries A Quantile Regression Approach (2019)
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DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2019.1698418

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