Can China Realize the Grid Parity Target of Centralized Photovoltaic Power by 2020?

Xingping Zhang, Wenfeng Liu, Hongyang Zhang and Jiahai Yuan

Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2021, vol. 57, issue 3, 740-756

Abstract: China has set an ambitious target of achieving the grid parity of solar power by 2020 in the 13th Five-Year Plan. This paper estimates the levelized costs of electricity (LCOE) of centralized photovoltaic power across regions in China with the actual situation in 2016 and simulation scenarios for 2020. Results demonstrate that the LCOEs of centralized photovoltaic power will decrease considerably during the period of 13th Five-Year. Few of them are competitive with generation side electric prices in 2016 basic scenario and 2020 pessimistic situation. Sensitivity analysis reveals that utilization hour, unit investment cost, and financing cost are key driving factors.

Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:57:y:2021:i:3:p:740-756

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DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2019.1598371

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