How Firms and Experts View The Phillips Curve: Evidence from Individual and Aggregate Data from South Africa

Monique B. Reid and Pierre Siklos

Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2022, vol. 58, issue 12, 3355-3376

Abstract: Heterogeneity is now a regular part of macroeconomic theory, but disaggregated data about firm expectations remain scarce. A survey of firms and financial analysts in South Africa provides forecasts of inflation and other macroeconomic variables. We estimate a variety of inflation and wage growth-based Phillips curves, which reflect differences in how firms and financial analysts view the link between inflation and real economic activity, as well as heterogeneity across firms. South African Phillips curves have become flatter, but backward-looking factors remain more relevant for firms. Rising real wage growth exceeds expected and past inflation and wage growth since the GFC.

Date: 2022
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Working Paper: How firms and experts view the Phillips curve evidence from individual and aggregate data from South Africa (2021)
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DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2022.2045940

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