Measuring Uncertainty in Export Destinations And Its Impact on Economic Growth: Evidence from Turkey

Guoliang Chen, Jianchun Fang, Giray Gözgör and Sercan Pekel

Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2022, vol. 58, issue 15, 4231-4246

Abstract: Using data from the World Uncertainty, the World Trade Uncertainty, and the World Pandemic Uncertainty indices for 142 countries, this paper introduces three new indicators for measuring Turkey’s export markets’ uncertainty from 1996Q1 to 2021Q3. The indicators measure uncertainty in Turkey’s export destinations. After introducing three indicators of uncertainty for export markets, we investigate their effects on economic performance. It is found that all uncertainty indicators are negatively related to economic growth. Specifically, an increase in export destinations’ uncertainty leads to a slower growth rate of two quarters. Pandemic-induced uncertainty also negatively affects economic growth. The implications for the role of risks and uncertainties, such as financial, geopolitical, and political risks, are also discussed.

Date: 2022
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1540496X.2022.2068412 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:58:y:2022:i:15:p:4231-4246

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/MREE20

DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2022.2068412

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Emerging Markets Finance and Trade from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().