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“Twin deficits” in Greece: in search of causality

Michalis Nikiforos, Laura Barbosa de Carvalho and Christian Schoder

Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 2015, vol. 38, issue 2, 302-330

Abstract: The paper discusses the trajectories of the Greek public deficit and sovereign debt between 1980 and 2010 and its connection to the political and economic environment of the same period. We pay special attention to the causality between the public and the external deficits in the period after 1995, the post–Maastricht Treaty period. We argue that, due to the European monetary unification process and the adoption of the common currency, causality ran from the external deficit to the public deficit. This hypothesis is tested econometrically using both Granger causality and cointegration analyses. We find empirical support for this hypothesis.

Date: 2015
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Working Paper: “Twin deficits” in Greece: in search of causality (2015) Downloads
Working Paper: "Twin deficits" in Greece in search of causality (2014) Downloads
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