Coronavirus and Migration: Analysis of Human Mobility and the Spread of Covid-19

Ibrahim Sirkeci and Mustafa Murat Yucesahin
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Mustafa Murat Yucesahin: Ankara University, Ankara, Turkey

Migration Letters, 2020, vol. 17, issue 2, 20

Abstract: Reactions, measures as well as discourses dealing with the current pandemic vary significantly across the world. While some countries were completely locked down, as was the case in Italy, some had claimed to have very few or no cases, as was the case in Turkey and Indonesia byMarch 10th, 2020. Nevertheless, the spread of COVID-19from China has been clearly linked to those travelling from Wuhan in Hubei province in Central China. Therefore, it is important to understand the travel density/volume of passengers carried as well asroutes from Wuhan through connected main regional air travel hubs across China.Inthis study, we developed a model on migration and travel intensity that can explain outbreak and spreadofCOVID-19 since it appearedat the end of 2019.We show that the presence of migrant stock populations of Chinese origin and the immigrant stock in China are useful indicatorsin the prediction of the spread of the outbreak worldwide in the event of interaction with several other macro factors. We argue that monitoring immigrant stock data and travel volume data based on human mobility corridors (i.e. origins and destinations), countries could have been better prepared and takenearly measures to contain the spread of COVID-19.

Keywords: Coronavirus; COVID-19; epidemic; migration; humanmobility; airtravel; spatialdiffusion; publichealth; China; Italy; France; Germany; Spain; UK; USA; Turkey (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.33182/ml.v17i2.935

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