EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Early Warning Systems of Currency Crises

Takatoshi Ito () and Keisuke Orii
Additional contact information
Keisuke Orii: Associate Professor, Keiai University

Public Policy Review, 2009, vol. 5, issue 1, 1-24

Abstract: Early warning systems (EWS) are from applied economics, aiming at predicting and preventing crises by developing econometric models. The East Asian currency crisis of 1997 to 1998 left lessons for both academic researchers and policy makers that crisis affects not only ground-zero countries but also neighboring economies. EWS contributes to fostering crisis-proof economies by policy monitoring in tranquil periods, predicting crises and taking preemptive measures, and distinguishing crisis causes between fundamentals and contagion. It also benefits Japan's external policy since it can foresee to which countries a crisis will spread once it occurs. This paper will, after reviewing the two major streams of EWS, the signal and regression approaches, extend a benchmark model of the regression approach and discuss challenges in developing EWS further.

Date: 2009
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://warp.ndl.go.jp/info:ndljp/pid/9908001/www.m ... w/ppr005/ppr005a.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mof:journl:ppr005a

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Public Policy Review from Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Policy Research Institute ().

 
Page updated 2021-06-09
Handle: RePEc:mof:journl:ppr005a