Economic Chronicles of Thirty Years. The Cyclical Growth of the Italian Economy, 1881-1913 in the Interpretation of Luigi Einaudi and his School

Francesco Cassata and Roberto Marchionatti

Rivista di storia economica, 2010, issue 2, 161-208

Abstract: Einaudi's contribution to an understanding of pre-1914 Italian economic development has so far been somewhat belittled. A close analysis of his works, together with the contributions of other scholars of the Turin School of economics, reveal a well-structured interpretation of the behavior of the Italian economy during the thirty-year period from the early 1880s up to the First World War. Einaudi examined the phenomenon by starting out from a theoretical apparatus built around a classical-Marshallian vision of economic development and a set of business cycle theories focusing on credit and money. Based on an extensive set of statistical indicators, Einaudi's interpretation is that of an economy which underwent a prolonged period of gradual strengthening, displaying a cyclical tendency defined by roughly twenty-year periods, with a particularly sharp growth spurt between 1898 and 1908 (the so-called «Giolittian growth»). This was made possible by the increase of gold, which had a twofold repercussion: on the one hand, it was among the elements that led to a greater availability of capital on the international level, and on the other, with the constant (but contained) increase in prices, it favoured the activities and expectations of industrialists and traders.

Date: 2010
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