Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights

Céline Guivarch, Thomas Gallic, Nico Bauer, Panagiotis Fragkos, Daniel Huppmann, Marc Jaxa-Rozen, Ilkka Keppo, Elmar Kriegler, Tamás Krisztin, Giacomo Marangoni, Steve Pye, Keywan Riahi, Roberto Schaeffer, Massimo Tavoni, Evelina Trutnevyte, Detlef Vuuren and Fabian Wagner
Additional contact information
Thomas Gallic: CIRED, CNRS
Nico Bauer: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Panagiotis Fragkos: E3-Modelling
Daniel Huppmann: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Marc Jaxa-Rozen: University of Geneva
Ilkka Keppo: Aalto University
Elmar Kriegler: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Giacomo Marangoni: RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici
Steve Pye: University College London
Keywan Riahi: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Roberto Schaeffer: Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
Massimo Tavoni: RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici
Evelina Trutnevyte: University of Geneva
Detlef Vuuren: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Fabian Wagner: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Nature Climate Change, 2022, vol. 12, issue 5, 428-435

Abstract: Abstract As they gain new users, climate change mitigation scenarios are playing an increasing role in transitions to net zero. One promising practice is the analysis of scenario ensembles. Here we argue that this practice has the potential to bring new and more robust insights compared with the use of single scenarios. However, several important aspects have to be addressed. We identify key methodological challenges and the existing methods and applications that have been or can be used to address these challenges within a three-step approach: (1) pre-processing the ensemble; (2) selecting a few scenarios or analysing the full ensemble; and (3) providing users with efficient access to the information.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01349-x

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