Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights

Céline Guivarch, Thomas Le Gallic (), Nico Bauer, Panagiotis Fragkos, Daniel Huppmann, Marc Jaxa-Rozen, Ilkka Keppo, Elmar Kriegler, Tamás Krisztin, Giacomo Marangoni, Steve Pye, Keywan Riahi, Roberto Schaeffer, Massimo Tavoni, Evelina Trutnevyte, Detlef van Vuuren and Fabian Wagner
Additional contact information
Thomas Le Gallic: CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Nico Bauer: PIK - Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung
Ilkka Keppo: Aalto University
Elmar Kriegler: PIK - Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung
Steve Pye: UCL - University College of London [London]
Roberto Schaeffer: UFRJ - Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro [Brasil] = Federal University of Rio de Janeiro [Brazil] = Université fédérale de Rio de Janeiro [Brésil]
Evelina Trutnevyte: UNIGE - Université de Genève = University of Geneva
Detlef van Vuuren: Universiteit Utrecht / Utrecht University [Utrecht]

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Abstract: As they gain new users, climate change mitigation scenarios are playing an increasing role in transitions to net zero. One promising practice is the analysis of scenario ensembles. Here we argue that this practice has the potential to bring new and more robust insights compared with the use of single scenarios. However, several important aspects have to be addressed. We identify key methodological challenges and the existing methods and applications that have been or can be used to address these challenges within a three-step approach: (1) pre-processing the ensemble; (2) selecting a few scenarios or analysing the full ensemble; and (3) providing users with efficient access to the information.

Date: 2022
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-dem, nep-ene and nep-env
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-03663267v1
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Published in Nature Climate Change, 2022, 12, pp.428-435. ⟨10.1038/s41558-022-01349-x⟩

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Journal Article: Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights (2022)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03663267

DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01349-x

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